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Videos, podcasts, multimedia. Partners Expertise Search. News and Events News. Wildland Fire Administrators' Group. SE FireMap. Foundations of Info-Metrics provides an overview of modeling and inference, rather than a problem specific model, and progresses from the simple premise that information is often insufficient to provide a unique answer for decisions we wish to make.

Each decision, or solution, is derived from the available input information along with a choice of inferential procedure.

The book contains numerous multidisciplinary applications and case studies, which demonstrate the simplicity and generality of the framework in real world settings. Examples include initial diagnosis at an emergency room, optimal dose decisions, election forecasting, network and information aggregation, weather pattern analyses, portfolio allocation, strategy inference for interacting entities, incorporation of prior information, option pricing, and modeling an interacting social system.

Graphical representations illustrate how results can be visualized while exercises and problem sets facilitate extensions. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on.

Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design of buildings, machines, processes, etc.

In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on.

Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making.

Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter.

Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory.

Author : Kofi K. It establishes the rational foundations of information dynamics and how these foundations relate to the general socio-natural dynamics from the primary to the derived categories in the universal existence and from the potential to the actual in the ontological space. It also shows how these foundations relate to the general socio-natural dynamics from the potential to the possible to give rise to the possibility space with possibilistic thinking; from the possible to the probable to give rise to possibility space with probabilistic thinking; and from the probable to the actual to give rise to the space of knowledge with paradigms of thought in the epistemological space.

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